April 15, 2025
Yesterday I reported of Sunday's missile attack in Sumy, Ukraine:
There was a ceremony planned for the seventh anniversary of the founding of the 117th Territorial Brigade. This was to take place in the congress center of the Sumy State University. Medals were to be presented for the recent participation of the brigade in the attack on the Russian oblast of Kursk. Invitations to the commanders of neighboring units were sent out.
...
The Russian military got wind of the event and destroyed the congress center (pics) with two Iskander missiles. There were military and civilian casualties. But under the rules of war the strike was on a legitimate target.
Ukrainian politicians had alleged that the head of the Sumy Oblast State Administration Volodymyr Artiukh had send out the invitation for the event and had arranged for the military ceremony to take place in the middle of the city.
The government of Ukraine essentially confirmed that today by removing Artiukhfrom his position:
The Cabinet of Ministers has approved the dismissal of Volodymyr Artiukh from the post of head of Sumy Oblast State Administration and the appointment of Oleh Hryhorov to this position.Konotop Mayor Artem Semenikhin accused Volodymyr Artiukh, Head of Sumy Oblast State Administration, of organising a gathering of soldiers from the 117th Brigade for an award ceremony in the centre of Sumy on 13 April.
Artiukh acknowledged that an award ceremony for servicemen took place in the city centre, but did not name the initiator.
Do not expect any western mainstream media to report these facts.
I have for quite some time not reported on the progress of the war in Ukraine. That is not because nothing is happening there. The Russian forces are pressing on all fronts while building up their reserves. Most of the many small pushes are successful but the current progress isn't measured in miles per day.
This is an attrition war. The capturing of land, which still happens, is not the measure of success. The destruction of the enemy's material and personnel resources is what matters. In this regard the Russian forces are making good progress. Over the last month the daily Ukrainian casualties as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense have crept up from a low of about 1,200 per day to some 1,500 per day now. That is still far away from the 2,500 per day reported during the summer and fall of 2024 but still a noticeable increase.
There is also an intensification of air and drone strikes on military factories far behind the frontlines. Instead of once or twice per week these are now a daily occurrence. The results of these strikes are only rarely reported. They do not have an immediate effect on the fighting. But they will over time diminish Ukraine's resources and its supplies of weapons and munition.
The ground in Ukraine is still muddy. Only when it dries up will we see a general campaign by the Russian forces.
They will look for weak spots in Ukraine's defense lines and push on each of those until one or more breakthroughs occur. Fresh forces will then moved up to exploit the breaches.
Posted by b on April 15, 2025 at 15:07 UTC | Permalink